The Strait of Hormuz is shut again. Tesla reports Q1 earnings on April 22 with a $25B AI wildcard on the table. SpaceX is days away from filing the biggest IPO in history. Here's your plain-English breakdown of the most important week in markets so far this year.
Markets opened lower on Monday, April 20 as the Strait of Hormuz went dark again — and the biggest earnings report of 2026 is two days away.
Here is everything happening this week, why each event matters, and what you should actually do about it.
What Happened This Weekend (While You Weren't Watching)
Friday closed on an extraordinary note. The S&P 500 finished at 7,126 — up 4.5% for the week. The Nasdaq posted a 6.8% weekly gain and its longest winning streak since 2009 (12 consecutive positive sessions). The Dow surged 868 points on Friday alone. Stocks celebrated a ceasefire between Iran and Lebanon, and Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz had reopened.
That relief lasted less than 72 hours.
Overnight Sunday into Monday morning, the US Navy fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship. Iran's joint military command vowed to respond. By Monday's open, West Texas Intermediate crude was surging over 4% to above $87 per barrel, and the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of global oil supply passes — was again at a virtual standstill.
The S&P 500 opened Monday down 0.22%. Oil and defense stocks moved up. Energy (XLE) fell 2.9% on profit-taking after Friday's rally. The VIX, which had dropped to 17.48 on Friday, was climbing again.
The bottom line: Last week's record highs are still intact. But the Iran situation is not resolved — it has escalated. This week's price action will be driven not just by earnings, but by how fast (or slowly) the Hormuz situation de-escalates.
Before you react to any of this: Check what your energy-exposed, defense, and logistics holdings actually disclosed about geopolitical risk and oil price sensitivity in their most recent 10-K filings. Companies are required to quantify this exposure in plain language.
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Tesla Earnings — April 22 After Close
This is the event that has dominated investor conversations since last week. Tesla (TSLA) reports Q1 2026 earnings on Wednesday, April 22, after the US market close, followed by a live analyst call with Elon Musk.
The Setup Heading In
Tesla enters earnings week with a deeply complicated picture:
- Stock down 11% year-to-date, but up sharply in April on an AI chip development announcement
- Q1 deliveries came in at 358,023 vehicles — missing the consensus estimate of roughly 368,000–370,000 units
- EPS consensus: $0.37 on revenue of $22.71 billion, though Refinitiv's Smart Estimate is more cautious at $0.30 EPS on $21.52 billion
- The "predicted earnings surprise" from Refinitiv's model: –20.6%
That last number deserves attention. A miss of that size, on top of a delivery shortfall, would be significant under normal circumstances. But Tesla in 2026 is not being valued as a normal auto company — and that is exactly the tension at the heart of Wednesday's report.
The Number That Actually Matters Most: Terafab Capex
Here is the thing Wall Street is actually watching, and it is not the EPS figure.
Tesla's 2026 capital expenditure guidance already exceeds $20 billion. Excluded from that figure is Terafab — the planned one-terawatt AI compute facility that Tesla is building jointly with SpaceX. If fully realised, Terafab could cost in the mid single-digit trillions, a scale that dwarfs Tesla's entire automotive revenue base.
Reuters and Bloomberg have both reported that Musk's team has already contacted multiple suppliers, suggesting Terafab is moving from concept into early procurement. What Musk says on Wednesday's analyst call about Terafab's scope, timeline, and funding structure will likely move the stock more than EPS.
The Other Revenue Lines Wall Street Is Starting to Price
Tesla is quietly becoming a multi-business company. These are the numbers from Q4 2025 that investors are extrapolating forward:
| Business Line | Q4 2025 Result | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Energy storage revenue | $3.84 billion | +25% |
| FSD subscriptions | 1.1 million | +38% |
| Cybercab/Semi production | Ramping 2026 | — |
If energy and software revenue carried that momentum into Q1, it creates a genuine offset to the delivery miss. This is why the "car company vs. AI infrastructure company" debate is not rhetorical — it is a real valuation question Wednesday's call will either clarify or further complicate.
How to Think About It
Tesla's P/E ratio is currently 334x. At that valuation, the bar for reassurance is extremely high. The bulls need Musk to give a credible Terafab timeline, robotaxi update, and energy revenue momentum. The bears only need earnings to miss the already-cautious Refinitiv estimate.
Read Tesla's most recent 10-K before Wednesday — specifically the risk factors around margin pressure, delivery dependence, and regulatory risk. MoneySense AI surfaces all of it in plain English in under five minutes.
The SpaceX IPO: What Investors Need to Understand Right Now
If Tesla earnings are this week's market event, the SpaceX IPO is the month's defining story — and possibly the year's.
The Numbers
- Confidential S-1 already filed with the SEC in April 2026
- Roadshow begins the week of June 8, with a retail investor event scheduled June 11
- Target valuation: up to $1.75 trillion — which would make this the largest IPO in history by a factor of more than three
- Capital raise target: up to $75 billion
For context: the current IPO record is Aramco's 2019 listing at roughly $25 billion. SpaceX is targeting three times that.
Why This Is Also a Tesla Story
SpaceX and Tesla are deeply interlinked through Elon Musk's leadership, and the Terafab joint venture is the clearest expression of that convergence. When spin-offs and sister-company IPOs have happened historically, the related public entity typically rallies into the event — the ARM IPO lifting SoftBank, or Aramco's listing tightening the broader Saudi equity complex. Tesla bulls are betting on the same dynamic here.
The structural argument: a SpaceX IPO at $1.75 trillion would create a "Musk premium" revaluation across every public entity he controls or is associated with. Whether that premium is justified is a separate question — but the sentiment mechanics are well-documented.
SpaceX currently dominates approximately 80% of the commercial rocket-launch market and operates Starlink, the world's largest satellite internet network.
What Indian and Singapore Investors Should Know
The SpaceX IPO is already generating significant attention from retail investors in India and Singapore who want access. The listing is expected on Nasdaq. Investors in both markets can access US-listed stocks through international brokerage accounts, though the IPO allocation process for retail investors in non-US markets will depend on their specific brokerage's underwriting access.
What matters most right now: SpaceX has not yet filed its public S-1. The confidential filing means you cannot read the prospectus yet. When the public S-1 drops — expected well before the June roadshow — reading the risk factors carefully will be essential. MoneySense AI will be able to analyze it the moment it's public.
Oil and the Strait of Hormuz: What the Seizure Actually Changes
The US seizure of an Iranian cargo ship on Sunday is not the same as a full Hormuz closure — but the market is treating it as a renewed escalation signal, and the distinction matters.
The practical situation today: Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a virtual standstill. Iran has vowed to respond "once the safety of the families and crew of the vessel is ensured." That conditional language is actually important — it signals Iran is not moving to immediate military escalation, but is keeping options open.
What this means for oil prices: WTI above $87 on Monday morning reflects fear premium, not supply disruption yet. If the Strait reopens within 48–72 hours, that premium evaporates quickly — which is exactly what happened last week after the ceasefire announcement sent oil down and stocks up sharply. If escalation continues, Brent returning toward $100 is the scenario to plan for.
The investor positioning question: Energy stocks (XLE) actually fell 2.9% on Friday despite the broader rally — because the ceasefire narrative triggered profit-taking after a big run. Monday's 4%+ crude move will likely push energy names back up in early trading. The companies to watch are the ones with the clearest disclosures about what $10/barrel moves in oil actually do to their earnings — and that information is in the 10-K, not in the headline.
This Week's Full Earnings Calendar — The Names to Watch
Tesla gets all the attention, but there are several other high-impact reports this week:
| Company | Date | What to Watch |
|---|---|---|
| Tesla (TSLA) | Wednesday Apr 22 (after close) | Terafab capex commentary, FSD/energy revenue, Musk guidance |
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | Tuesday Apr 22 (after close) | AI revenue monetization, Cloud vs. AWS |
| Meta (META) | Wednesday Apr 23 (after close) | AI infrastructure spend vs. headcount cuts follow-through |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | Wednesday Apr 23 (after close) | Azure AI growth, Copilot adoption metrics |
| AerCap Holdings | Monday Apr 20 | Aviation demand, asset sale strategy |
The Microsoft and Alphabet reports will carry a specific data point everyone is watching: actual AI revenue monetization. Hyperscalers have been spending tens of billions on AI infrastructure. Wednesday's calls will tell investors whether that spending is generating measurable revenue or still pre-commercial.
What Investors Should Do Right Now
If you hold Tesla: Read the 10-K risk factors before Wednesday. Know what Tesla disclosed about delivery risk, margin pressure, FSD regulatory status, and capital allocation before Musk says anything on the call. Surprises are smaller when you've already read the filings.
If you're watching the SpaceX IPO: Wait for the public S-1. Don't act on valuation speculation before the actual prospectus is available. When it drops, the risk factors section will be the most important document to read — it will disclose exactly what SpaceX considers material risks to the business.
If you hold energy stocks: The Hormuz situation is not resolved. A $10/barrel swing in oil is entirely possible in either direction this week depending on diplomatic developments. Know your holdings' oil price sensitivity from their annual reports before the news forces a decision.
If you are in cash or under-invested: The S&P 500 is at record highs (7,126 as of Friday's close) despite a shooting war in the Middle East and an unresolved tariff situation. That resilience tells you something about market sentiment — but it doesn't make the underlying risks smaller. Phased buying with full awareness of your holdings' disclosed risk factors is a more defensible approach than reacting to headlines.
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*Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All prices and market data are sourced from publicly available information as of April 20, 2026 and may change rapidly given current market conditions. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.*