LMT hit an all-time high of $692. RTX backlog swelled to a massive $268 billion. See the complete day-by-day performance log of defense stocks today.
This is the article for anyone who searched "defense stocks performance March 2026" and got generic commentary. We tracked every major defense stock move from February 28 through March 10, 2026 — with the actual numbers, the actual catalyst for each move, and the institutional narrative driving the re-rating. Everything is sourced from real-time market reporting.
The Setup: What Changed Everything on February 28, 2026
At approximately 3:00 AM ET on Saturday, March 1, 2026 (February 28 in U.S. Eastern time zones), the U.S. and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury — a coordinated air and missile campaign targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, IRGC infrastructure, and leadership compounds across Iran.
The tactical execution relied heavily on premium U.S. air assets: F-35 Lightning II aircraft manufactured by Lockheed Martin, Tomahawk cruise missiles from RTX Corporation, B-2 Spirit stealth bombers made by Northrop Grumman, and Patriot/THAAD missile defense systems from Lockheed and RTX.
By March 2, 2026 — the first full U.S. trading day — the defense sector had undergone the most significant single-session re-rating since September 12, 2001.
The Master Performance Log: March 2026 Defense Stocks
March 2, 2026 — Day One: The Historic Opening
This was the moment. The first full U.S. trading day after Operation Epic Fury began. Here is exactly what happened:
| Stock | Open-Day Move | Key Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| LMT (Lockheed Martin) | +3.23% to $675.81 (ATH intraday $692.00) | F-35s led the strikes; THAAD production mandated to quadruple; $25.36B microelectronics contract confirmed |
| RTX Corporation | +6.5% | Patriot missiles + Tomahawk cruise missiles — the two most "sought-after commodities" in the theater per market reporting |
| NOC (Northrop Grumman) | +6.0% | B-2 Spirit stealth bomber made operational combat debut; B-21 Raider program accelerated |
| LHX (L3Harris) | +5.3% | Tactical communications, electronic warfare systems deployed in operation |
| S&P 500 | Fell | Broader market sold off on oil spike, energy inflation fears |
On March 2, 2026, as news broke of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites during Operation Epic Fury, defense stocks moved opposite to nearly everything else — NOC jumped 4.6% in premarket trading, while LMT rose more than 3%, even as the broader S&P 500 sold off.
The divergence that told the whole story: Defense up while everything else fell. That divergence tells you everything about what these two companies represent as portfolio assets.
What made LMT's move particularly significant: LMT hit a fresh all-time high of $692.00 on Monday morning, March 2, 2026, before settling around $675.81 — up 3.23% on the session. The intraday range spanned $647.10 to $692.00, and the 52-week range now stretches from $410.11 to $692.00 — meaning the stock has gained 69% from its 52-week low.
March 3, 2026 — The Industry Re-Rating Report
The global defense sector witnessed an unprecedented rally, as the outbreak of a major military campaign in the Middle East sent shockwaves through financial markets. Investors were aggressively pricing in a structural shift in global security, moving beyond traditional valuation models to account for a multi-year cycle of high-intensity conflict and massive munitions replenishment.
The critical shift on Day 2 was the move from "war premium" framing to "structural re-rating" framing in institutional analysis.
This rally represents more than just a temporary spike; it is a fundamental re-rating of the industrial sector. Historically, defense stocks traded at multiples between 15x and 18x forward earnings. However, as of March 2026, companies like Lockheed Martin are trading closer to 31x P/E.
What drove the valuation expansion:
This shift is fueled by the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," a legislative package that front-loaded $113 billion for immediate military modernization, pushing the total 2026 defense budget over $1 trillion. The broader industry trend is moving toward "Software-Defined Defense." The market is now rewarding defense contractors that integrate high-margin AI and digital backbones into their hardware, leading to "tech-like" valuation multiples. Furthermore, NATO allies are now targeting defense spending at 5% of their respective GDPs, up from the previous 2% benchmark.
The NATO 5% commitment is the most underappreciated driver: Moving from 2% to 5% of GDP across 32 member nations represents a multi-trillion dollar procurement expansion that extends well beyond any single conflict's timeline.
March 4, 2026 — Palantir Joins the Defense AI Rally
On March 4, 2026, the momentum in the defense sector reached a fever pitch, led by the contrasting yet complementary success of software innovator Palantir Technologies Inc. and traditional aerospace titan Lockheed Martin. Both companies became the focal point of investor attention as global conflicts shift from theoretical risks to active military campaigns, necessitating both physical hardware and advanced artificial intelligence.
This day introduced a critical new dimension to the defense rally: the separation between "Iron" (hardware) and "Intelligence" (AI software) as distinct but equally valued defense assets.
As the primary contractor for the physical systems used in Operation Epic Fury, Lockheed Martin is seeing a direct translation from geopolitical conflict to order-book growth. The company's 2026 sales guidance of $77.5 billion to $80.0 billion reflects a defense environment where replenishment of depleted munitions and modernization of air dominance are the highest priorities.
The Palantir angle: Following the February 27 government designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk, Palantir absorbed significant DoD AI contracts. Analysts expect a significant portion of the vacated contracts to be absorbed by Palantir's secure, sovereign AI solutions — a shift that contributed to the company's ambitious 2026 revenue guidance of $7.19 billion, a projected 61% increase year-over-year.
March 5, 2026 — Live Weapons Validation Drives Further Upside
Shares of Lockheed Martin soared nearly 7% in overnight trading while RTX Corp shares jumped nearly 6%, and L3Harris Technologies stock gained 5.3%. U.S. Central Command released several videos and pictures on X of the F-35 fighter jets taking off for the attack on Iranian military bases.
The live-combat footage of F-35s and Tomahawks performing in real operational conditions is a unique form of product validation that no defense contractor can manufacture artificially. Every successful mission is a marketing event worth billions in future sales.
Lockheed Martin noted that they had flight-tested an artificial intelligence-enhanced Combat Identification capability integrated into the F-35's information fusion system. AI integration into the F-35 platform directly addresses the "Software-Defined Defense" re-rating narrative — hardware companies that demonstrate AI capability are earning tech-multiple premiums.
March 9, 2026 — Record Backlogs and Fresh All-Time Highs
By March 9, the initial surge had extended into a second wave driven by contract and backlog announcements:
Lockheed Martin shares hit a fresh all-time high of $692.00, representing a staggering 44% gain over the last three months. The company's focus on the THAAD system has become central to the defense of allied Gulf states, with production mandates shifting from 96 units to 400 units annually to meet the threat of Iranian ballistic missiles.
RTX has seen its backlog swell to a record $268 billion as of early March. The demand for its Tomahawk and AMRAAM missile systems has forced the company to accelerate its manufacturing timelines.
Northrop Grumman saw its stock jump 6% in a single session as its B-21 Raider stealth bomber made its operational debut in the conflict, solidifying the company's role in the Air Force's next-generation strategic deterrence.
The Complete March 2026 Defense Scorecard
| Name | Ticker | March 2 Day-1 Move | YTD 2026 | 3-Month Return | All-Time High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lockheed Martin | LMT | +3.23% (ATH $692) | +40%+ | +44% | $692.00 (March 2, 2026) |
| RTX Corporation | RTX | +6.5% | +38% | Record backlog $268B | 52-week high |
| Northrop Grumman | NOC | +6.0% | +46% | +6% single session Mar 9 | Near record |
| L3Harris | LHX | +5.3% | +29% | Sustained elevation | Near record |
| SHLD ETF | SHLD | +3%+ | — | +72.8% since Apr 2025 | — |
| S&P 500 | SPX | Fell | ~-2% | Volatile | — |
What's Driving Each Name — The Specific Catalysts
Lockheed Martin (LMT): The Weapons Platform Story
Lockheed Martin emerged as a frontrunner, hitting 52-week highs after its F-35 Lightning II aircraft played a central role in the initial strikes. The company recently secured a $25.36 billion ceiling contract for microelectronics and is reportedly in talks to quadruple its production of THAAD interceptors to meet the surging demand for missile defense in the Middle East.
LMT's $194 billion backlog, combined with the new THAAD production ramp (from 96 to 400 units annually) and F-35 combat validation, creates a three-year earnings revision cycle that analysts are only beginning to model.
The FY26 Defense Appropriations Bill has been passed and signed, providing $838.5 billion in base discretionary defense spending — the largest defense budget in U.S. history. Every Tomahawk cruise missile fired, every PAC-3 interceptor expended, every precision-guided bomb dropped creates a replacement order. The Pentagon cannot allow inventory levels to fall below readiness thresholds, and the pace of expenditure in Operation Epic Fury is burning through stocks at a rate that will require emergency supplemental funding.
Current valuation: Lockheed leads year-to-date in 2026 with +34.72%, reflecting the market's preference for Lockheed's direct weapons-systems exposure during active conflict. Lockheed's $194 billion backlog and 23 consecutive years of dividend increases are notable, though its program execution risk showed clearly in 2025. Northrop trades at roughly 26x forward earnings, Lockheed at roughly 22x. Neither is cheap.
RTX Corporation: The Munitions Manufacturing Story
RTX's move to a record $268 billion backlog is the most concrete evidence of the munitions replenishment super-cycle thesis. Every Patriot intercept, Tomahawk strike, and AMRAAM deployment must be replaced. At current operational tempo, RTX's manufacturing lines are running at capacity.
RTX Corporation saw its shares jump 6.5% on the news, driven by its dominance in the munitions and sensor markets. The company's Patriot missile systems and Tomahawk cruise missiles are currently the most sought-after commodities in the regional theater.
The backlog-to-revenue conversion is the key metric to watch in Q1 earnings (late April). If RTX confirms accelerated conversion timelines, it will trigger another round of earnings upgrades.
Northrop Grumman (NOC): The Long-Duration Program Story
Northrop outperforms across every long-term window. Northrop's B-21 and Sentinel programs represent government-backed revenue streams extending well beyond any single administration or regional conflict, appealing to investors focused on long-term contract visibility.
The B-21 Raider's operational combat debut on March 9 is the single most important product validation in Northrop's history. The B-21 was announced as a future platform — it is now a combat-proven one. Every allied nation evaluating next-generation strategic bomber capabilities now has live combat data.
NOC's leading YTD performance (+46%) reflects the market's reward for long-duration program visibility combined with immediate operational validation.
The SHLD ETF: The Diversified Way to Own the Thesis
For retail investors who want defense sector exposure without single-stock risk, the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF has risen 35% since the June 2025 strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. The Global X Defense ETF (SHLD) — a newer product — has delivered +72.8% since its April 2025 inception, capturing the full arc of the defense re-rating cycle.
SHLD holds diversified exposure across LMT, NOC, RTX, LHX, and international defense names (BAE Systems, Rheinmetall, Leonardo) that are simultaneously benefiting from the NATO 5% GDP commitment.
The "Is It Too Late?" Valuation Analysis
This is the question every investor is asking in mid-March 2026. Here is an honest answer.
The bull case for continued upside:
Even if the kinetic phase of the war ends quickly, the reconstruction of regional security and the replenishment of depleted U.S. stockpiles will provide a multi-year tailwind for the industry. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the damage to regional energy infrastructure suggest the structural budget expansion case remains intact independent of near-term ceasefire outcomes.
The $1 trillion defense budget, NATO's 5% GDP commitment, and the munitions replenishment cycle are structural drivers — they don't end when the shooting stops.
The bear case:
Capital Alpha Partners' Byron Callan raised an important counterpoint: "A new phase U.S.-Israel War against Iran may have negative impacts on conventional military kit demand, presuming the Iranian missile force is eliminated." The argument is that if Operation Epic Fury succeeds in dismantling Iran's missile infrastructure, the perceived threat level drops, and future budgets may pivot toward lower-cost autonomous systems rather than expensive manned platforms.
The balanced view:
That risk is real but distant. The immediate need is to fight the current war with the current arsenal, which means F-35 flight hours, Tomahawk expenditures, THAAD intercepts, and Black Hawk deployments — all Lockheed revenue drivers. The autonomous transition is a 2030s story. The 2026–2029 story is replenishment, modernization, and allied procurement of proven platforms.
Valuation reality check:
| Company | Current P/E (fwd) | Historical Defense P/E | Premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| LMT | ~22x | 15–18x | +22–47% |
| NOC | ~26x | 15–18x | +44–73% |
| RTX | ~20x | 14–16x | +25–43% |
The premium is real. But it's justified if the multi-year budget expansion thesis holds — historically, defense sector P/E re-rates stay elevated for the duration of budget expansion cycles (3–7 years post-9/11).
What to Watch: The 4 Catalysts That Move Defense Stocks Next
1. Congressional Supplemental Appropriations (Q2 2026)
Emergency spending to replenish munitions stocks. If passed above $100B → LMT, RTX, NOC earnings revisions accelerate.
2. Q1 2026 Defense Earnings (Late April)
Backlog conversion language from LMT, NOC, RTX management. Use MoneySense AI to analyze transcripts the day they're released. Look for: "accelerated production timeline," "contract awards expected Q2," "backlog conversion on schedule."
3. NATO Defense Spending Commitments
Watch for individual European nation budget announcements. Germany, Poland, UK announcing specific program contracts is a direct signal for allied procurement of U.S. platforms.
4. Operation Epic Fury Duration
President Trump described a four-to-five week military timeline. Every week of active combat operations burns through munitions inventory that must be replaced, generates operational data validating Lockheed platforms, and strengthens the political case for sustained or increased defense spending.
Track Defense Stocks With AI in Real Time
The signals that tell you when the narrative is shifting are in the text — management guidance language, congressional testimony, and news article tone shifts before they show up in Polymarket probabilities.
MoneySense AI processes any LMT, NOC, or RTX earnings call or news filing in seconds — with AI sentiment scoring that flags language changes institutional desks pay six figures to detect first.
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Resources & References
- FinancialContent — Operation Epic Fury Industry Re-Rating, March 3, 2026
- TradingNews — LMT All-Time High $692 F-35 Iran Strike Analysis
- FinancialContent — Palantir and LMT Lead Defense Rally, March 4, 2026
- Stocktwits — LMT RTX LHX Performance Week-1 March 2026
- Yahoo Finance — NOC vs. LMT 10-Year Return Comparison
- FinancialContent — War Footing: Defense Stocks Break Out, March 9, 2026
- MoneySense AI — Which Defense Stocks Go Up During Wartime 2026
- MoneySense AI — Best Defense Stocks to Buy During War 2026
- MoneySense AI — War Economy Sectors: Winners and Losers 2026
*Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. All performance data sourced from publicly available market reporting. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not investment advice.*
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