Nifty down 9% since the Iran war started — is the correction actually over? Here's what ICICI Direct's data says about the recovery pattern
Been tracking the Nifty correction closely over the last 6 weeks and wanted to share what I found, because I think a lot of people are sitting on the sidelines waiting for "clarity" that may arrive AFTER the recovery has already started. What the data shows: The ICICI Direct market wrap from March 2026 made a specific point worth paying attention to: the current correction pattern mirrors the Russia-Ukraine template from 2022 — where Auto, Metals, and Financials led the recovery after the initial geopolitical panic. Not IT. Not Realty (which is down ~15%). Financials and cyclicals. The three things I'm watching: Gulf remittance risk — This is the one that most screeners completely miss. Over 1/3 of India's total remittance inflows come from the Gulf. A prolonged slowdown there could pressure banks with heavy NRI deposit exposure. Check your bank holdings specifically for this before adding. IT sector — Underperformed since February. The dual headwind is US recession fears (largest revenue market) + AI disruption narrative. Cheap valuation, but near-term earnings risk. I'm not adding aggressively until I see US macro stabilise. Energy split — Upstream companies (beneficiaries of Brent above $100) vs. OMCs and refiners (facing margin pressure because crude input costs rose faster than product prices). The blanket "buy energy" call is too blunt here. My general take: Patient investors who bought during the Russia-Ukraine panic were rewarded. The recovery begins before the news gets better, not after. But position sizing matters — this isn't a "go all in" moment, it's a "start building positions gradually" moment. What are you all doing with your portfolios right now? Staying put, trimming, or adding? Not financial advice. Always read the annual report disclosures before making investment decisions. TAGS: IndiaInvestments, Nifty50, Sensex, stockmarket, Iran war, portfolio submitted by /u/arrremayu [link] [comments]