Gold at $5,138. Iamgold Up 273% in a Year. Nexa Resources 99% EPS Growth. Here Is What the Miners Are Telling You About 2026.

The number that tells you more about this market than any single headline: Gold futures hit $5,138 per ounce on March 12, 2026. One year ago, gold was $2,200. The miners that dig it out of the ground are up 273% in twelve months. And underneath the AI story that dominates every business news channel, a materials boom is building — in gold, in zinc, in copper — that most retail investors have not connected to their portfolio yet. Here is the plain-English explanation.

Why Gold at $5,138 Is Not Just an Iran Story

The instinct when you see gold at a record high is to look for the single crisis causing it. This week, the obvious candidate is Iran — the conflict entered its second week, Brent crude briefly touched $100 this morning, and safe-haven demand is real.

But the gold story did not start this week. The move from $2,200 to $5,138 has been building for over a year. The Iran war is an accelerant, not the cause.

Three structural forces are driving gold's ascent, and they are worth understanding independently of the news cycle.

💡 Before buying gold miners: Read what IAG and NEXA disclosed about country risk, hedging policy, and operating cost exposure in their most recent annual filings. MoneySense AI analyses any SEC filing in 5 minutes — free. Start now →

Force 1: Geopolitical Risk Has Repriced Gold's Floor

Gold has traditionally served as a safe-haven asset during periods of geopolitical instability — not because of any intrinsic yield, but because it cannot be sanctioned, frozen, or blocked. It does not move through a strait.

The Strait of Hormuz carries approximately one-third of the world's seaborne oil. When it closes — as Iran confirmed on Day 4 of the conflict — oil prices spike, energy inflation rises, and investors seek assets that are not exposed to physical disruption.

But the more important geopolitical driver began in 2022, not 2026. When Western governments froze approximately $300 billion of Russia's sovereign foreign exchange reserves following the Ukraine invasion, central banks around the world drew the same conclusion: holding dollar-denominated assets means holding assets that can be seized.

Since 2022, central bank gold purchases have reached record highs in consecutive years. This is structural demand from institutions — not retail investors, not speculation. This sustained institutional buying has set a persistently higher floor for gold prices.

Force 2: The Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Problem

When interest rates are high, holding gold has an opportunity cost — money in a T-bill earns a return, and gold earns nothing. This is why gold struggled when the Fed raised rates aggressively in 2022–2023.

Now, the dynamic has reversed — but with a complication.

The Fed signalled rate cuts for 2025–2026 as inflation appeared to be cooling. Rate cuts reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is bullish for gold prices. But the Iran war has introduced an energy price spike — Brent at $100 — that threatens to push CPI higher again.

The Fed now faces a difficult position: the economy may need cuts, but oil-driven inflation makes it politically and technically harder to deliver them. Gold performs best in exactly this scenario — when real interest rates are flat or declining, and inflation expectations are elevated.

The market is pricing this dynamic. Gold at $5,138 is the market's prediction of where rates and inflation are going, not just a reaction to today's headlines.

Force 3: Dollar Diversification at the Central Bank Level

Since 2022, central banks in China, India, Russia, Turkey, Poland, Hungary, and numerous other countries have increased their gold reserves at historically unprecedented rates. The People's Bank of China added gold to its reserves for 18 consecutive months before briefly pausing in 2024.

The motive is straightforward: gold represents reserve assets outside the US dollar system. For nations that have reason to worry about the geopolitical stability of USD-denominated reserves, gold provides insurance.

This demand is not price-sensitive in the same way retail demand is. Central banks do not stop buying gold because it has risen 10% this month. This creates a structural bid that retail investors do not typically account for.

Iamgold (IAG): The Miner That Captured the Gold Rally Perfectly

Iamgold trades on the NYSE under the ticker IAG. Anyone who bought at the 52-week low of $5.02 has quadrupled their money. The question for investors considering IAG today at $21.10 is whether there is still runway — and the answer requires understanding why the Côté Gold mine is strategically important.

The Côté Gold Mine: Why Timing Was Perfect

The Côté Gold mine in northern Ontario is one of the largest open-pit gold mines in Canada, with an expected mine life of more than 18 years. The critical detail for investors: Côté reached full nameplate production capacity in June 2025 — precisely when gold prices began their most recent and largest leg upward.

This is not a coincidence from Iamgold's perspective — they were building toward this production milestone for years. But the timing was fortunate. Reaching full output just as the gold price moved from $2,700 to $5,138 means every additional ounce of production flows to the bottom line at historically elevated prices. The mine's cash costs remain relatively fixed. The revenue it generates scales with gold's price.

This operating leverage — where fixed costs stay flat and revenue rises with commodity prices — is the defining feature of gold mining economics. It is why gold miners outperform the gold price in bull markets.

What IAG's 10-K Says About Risks You Should Know

Iamgold is not a risk-free investment. Two material risks disclosed in their annual filing deserve attention:

Burkina Faso operations: Iamgold operates the Essakane mine in Burkina Faso, which has experienced political instability and security challenges. Management has disclosed ongoing security costs and operational disruptions related to the regional environment. Côté is the flagship asset, but Essakane remains part of the business.

Cost inflation: Gold mining requires diesel, steel, and electricity. With oil at $100 and energy prices elevated globally, Iamgold's operating costs face upward pressure even as the gold price rises. The net effect has been strongly positive, but investors should check the company's cost-per-ounce guidance for 2026 in the annual filing.

Nexa Resources (NEXA): The AI–Zinc Connection Nobody Is Making

Nexa Resources is the name on this list that almost nobody is talking about. It is a Latin American zinc and silver producer with operations in Peru and Brazil. Its projected EPS growth of approximately 99% is not driven by a single event — it is driven by structural demand.

Why Zinc Belongs in an AI-Era Portfolio

Here is the chain of logic that connects NEXA to the AI infrastructure story:

1. Hyperscalers are spending $600–700 billion on AI data centres in 2026
2. Data centres are large buildings — they require structural steel in enormous quantities
3. Structural steel used in construction is galvanised — coated in zinc — to prevent corrosion
4. Galvanised steel production is the largest single use of zinc globally

When Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta build data centres at unprecedented scale, they generate zinc demand that never shows up in any AI stock screener. But it shows up in Nexa Resources' revenue.

The EV battery manufacturing boom runs the same logic — zinc is used in zinc-air and zinc-manganese battery chemistries that are increasingly relevant in grid-scale energy storage.

This is a structural demand story, not a cyclical one. Zinc demand from AI infrastructure and battery production is not going to reverse when the next FOMC meeting happens.

Important note: Nexa Resources is a small-cap stock with meaningful Latin American country risk (Peru and Brazil operational environments), currency exposure, and liquidity considerations. The 99% EPS growth thesis is compelling but carries higher risk than large-cap mining peers. Position sizing matters.

The Overlooked Connection: Why Tech and Miners Are Moving Together

Here is the insight that ties these threads together and that most retail investors have not connected.

Microsoft's stock trades at $408.96 today. Microsoft is building data centres. Those data centres require:

• Copper (electrical wiring, servers, cooling systems)
• Steel (structural, galvanised — requires zinc)
• Concrete (requires energy — affects coal demand)
• Diesel generators and backup power (diesel, oil)

The AI boom is the largest coordinated construction project in human history. Every dollar spent on AI infrastructure eventually flows into the materials sector. This is why commodity miners — gold, zinc, copper — are performing strongly in a year when tech stocks are also strong. These are not competing themes. They are the same infrastructure cycle expressed through different assets.

How to Allocate to Miners: A Practical Framework

These are not specific investment recommendations. They are frameworks for thinking about how gold and zinc miners fit within a broader portfolio depending on objectives.

External Resources for Further Research

• SEC EDGAR — Iamgold 10-K Annual Filing
• SEC EDGAR — Nexa Resources 20-F Annual Filing
• Iamgold Investor Relations — Côté Gold Mine Updates
• Nexa Resources Investor Relations
• Bank of America Global Research — IAG $27.50 Target
• Scotiabank — Iamgold Mining Coverage
• World Gold Council — Central Bank Gold Demand Report
• Kitco — Gold Spot Price Live
• Zacks Investment Research — IAG and NEXA Ratings
• Investing.com — Gold Futures Chart and Data
• Bloomberg — Commodity Markets Coverage
• MoneySense AI — Analyse Any SEC Filing Free

*Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Mining stocks carry material risks including operational risk, country risk, commodity price volatility, and currency risk. All prices and data are approximate and sourced from publicly available information as at March 12–14, 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Nexa Resources is a small-cap stock; liquidity and volatility risks are elevated. Please consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.*

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